Second major poll in 24 hours forecasts bigger Labour landslide than 1997

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer are set to lose their seats, according to More In Common’s MRP poll of 13,556 adults across Great Britain, for The News Agents podcast.

Labour is set for an upset in Islington North, where the party’s former leader Jeremy Corbyn has a 91% chance of winning, but is on for around 430 seats in total, reducing the Conservatives Party’s House of Commons tally to 126.

More in Common has also forecasted Reform UK winning two seats, likely Ashfield in Nottinghamshire which the party’s Lee Anderson won in 2019 as a Conservative and Clacton in Essex, where Nigel Farage is standing.

The Green Party is tipped to win Brighton Pavilion where Caroline Lucas was the party’s only MP between 2010 and 2024, with its target constituency Bristol Central – where party co-leader Carla Denyer is a challenger to Labour shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire – “too close to call”.

It comes after Survation quizzed 34,558 respondents and found it is “99% certain” Labour would win more than 418 seats – the number which Labour took under Tony Blair’s leadership 27 years ago.

“The Conservative Party is virtually certain to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election,” Survation analysts wrote.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had earlier rejected the suggestion of defeat and said he is “fighting hard for every vote”.

He told ITV’s This Morning: “We just saw some analysis which showed that just 130,000 people can make the difference in this election.

“So, everyone watching who thinks, ‘oh, this is all a foregone conclusion’, it’s not.”

His rival Sir Keir, on the campaign trail in Carmarthenshire, said: “I think the Tories have run a very negative campaign and they’re failing to answer the question of what positive change they bring for the country.”

The Labour leader accused Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride, who told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that a Labour majority is the one “very clear conclusion” in the General Election, of “voter suppression” and added the minister’s comment amounted to “trying to get people to stay at home rather than to go out and vote”.

Sir Keir said: “I say if you want change, you have to vote for it.

“I want people to be part of the change.”

Among the Conservative Party upsets forecasted by More In Common are losses to Labour in Welwyn Hatfield (contested by Mr Shapps), Monmouthshire (Welsh Secretary David TC Davies), Caerfyrddin (Chief Whip Simon Hart), Banbury (Attorney General Victoria Prentis) and Plymouth Moor View (Mr Mercer).

More In Common has listed Portsmouth North, which former Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt is contesting, as “too close to call”.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, contesting Godalming and Ash, and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, contesting Cheltenham, are among the forecasted Conservative losses to the Liberal Democrats.

The pollsters have forecasted the Sir Ed Davey’s party taking 52 seats and 13.5% of the vote share, against 39.3% for Labour, 22.7% for the Conservatives and 13.1% for Reform UK.

The Lib Dems took just 11 seats at the 2019 election.

More In Common found former Labour MP Keith Vaz is in a too-close-to-call race with his former party in Leicester East.

In Scotland, the SNP’s 48-seat total could be slashed by two thirds, to 16 seats.

The party is set to lose all three of its Edinburgh seats to Labour, with Labour set to hold Edinburgh South and the Liberal Democrats Edinburgh West.

The SNP is also set to lose all of its Glasgow constituencies to Labour, along with the two seats in Paisley and Renfrewshire, North and South.

Plaid Cymru is forecasted to win Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd.